What’s left to play for in F1’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix season finale?
Can Mercedes hold off a resurgent Ferrari at the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in the battle to secure runner-up spot in F1 2023?
Mercedes v Ferrari down to the wire
With the drivers’ and constructors’ world championship titles both sorted, the biggest score left to settle in 2023 is the battle for second place behind Red Bull.
Mercedes currently occupy P2 heading into the final round of the season but face a tough task to hold off Ferrari, with just four points separating the rival teams.
Ferrari have dramatically closed the gap over the last two races. In Las Vegas, they outscored Mercedes by 16 points thanks to Charles Leclerc taking second and Carlos Sainz finishing sixth.
Momentum is with Ferrari and second place is now within striking distance heading to a circuit that should suit their car thanks to the SF-23’s superior straightline speed.
The difference between second and third in the constructors’ championship is thought to be in the region of $10m, so there is plenty at stake for both teams.
"It's all down to the last weekend,” said Mercedes boss Toto Wolff. “They are very quick, they have done a good job. I think we could have been on par [in the Las Vegas race] but the result shows something different. So let's race.”
Ferrari team principal Fred Vasseur said: "We were able to perform in Monza, in Singapore, in Austin, in Mexico, during this weekend on different tracks with different race conditions, different [tyre] compounds, and we can be more than motivated before Abu Dhabi.
“The momentum is for us and let's see what happens."
The battle for P4
While the championship top-three may already be cemented, there is a fascinating fight behind over fourth place in the drivers’ standings.
Sainz has moved level with Aston Martin’s Fernando Alonso on 400 points, with the Ferrari driver’s victory in Singapore making him the current holder of fourth spot.
McLaren’s Lando Norris is also in the hunt, with the Briton currently sixth in the championship and just five points behind Sainz and Alonso. A heavy crash in Las Vegas was a setback for Norris, but there is still a chance he could pip the Spanish duo in the final round showdown.
Leclerc can also mount a late bid for fourth, although that is more of a long-shot considering he is 12 points adrift of his teammate. He would require at least a fourth-place finish with the fastest lap to have any chance of bridging the gap, as well as requiring his rivals to all score lowly, or not at all.
Given Ferrari’s impressive form of late, it is hard to see past Sainz coming out on top when the chequered flag falls in Abu Dhabi.
Just outside of the top-10, bragging rights are still up for grabs in the Alpine intra-team battle.
A superb drive to fourth place in Vegas saw Esteban Ocon enjoy a 12-point swing on teammate Pierre Gasly, leaving Ocon just four points behind.
Things can get heated between the two Frenchmen, so that’ll be another fight to keep an eye on.
Millions at stake at the bottom
An important scrap is raging towards the bottom of the constructors’ championship, with four teams involved.
Williams currently hold seventh spot but are just seven points clear of AlphaTauri, who have outscored the British outfit by 11 points across the recent triple-header in the Americas.
AlphaTauri’s performance has improved significantly since introducing a sizeable, Red Bull-inspired upgrade in Singapore, but neither team scored last time out.
It would take something special for AlphaTauri to overhaul Williams in the final race of the season, but it is not impossible.
Alfa Romeo are a further five points adrift of AlphaTauri in ninth place, while Haas occupy the unwanted 10th spot, four points adrift of the Swiss outfit, in the race to avoid finishing 2023 with the wooden spoon.
Any last-minute changes of position - resulting in the gain (or indeed loss) of millions in prize money - will have huge ramifications for F1’s smaller teams.
Mercedes' last chance to avoid unwanted stat
Abu Dhabi will provide Mercedes with their final chance to stand on the top step of the podium and avoid a winless season.
Remarkably, Mercedes last endured a season without a single victory in 2011.
Can the German manufacturer avoid a repeat in 2023 by triumphing at the Yas Marina Circuit? It will be a tough ask, considering Red Bull and Ferrari’s expected competitiveness in Abu Dhabi.
Mercedes’ last F1 victory came over 12 months ago at the 2022 Sao Paulo Grand Prix, courtesy of George Russell leading teammate Lewis Hamilton in a Silver Arrows 1-2 at Interlagos.
Hamilton, the most successful driver in Abu Dhabi with five wins, remains determined to end his own personal winless drought - stretching back to the 2021 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.
